भारत का जनसांख्यिकीय लाभांश: अवसर, भ्रम या समय के विरुद्ध दौड़?

Abstract

India’s changing age structure is widely regarded as a major source of potential economic growth. 

Declining fertility and increasing life expectancy have raised the share of the working-age population, 

creating conditions for a demographic dividend. According to the Economic Survey 2025–26, India’s 

demographic dividend is expected to approach its peak around 2030, with the population aged 15–59 

years projected to account for about 65% of the population. However, demographic change by itself 

does not generate economic growth; its benefits depend on the effective integration of the working-

age population into productive employment.

This paper examines India’s demographic dividend as an opportunity, a potential illusion, and a time-

bound economic window. Drawing on evidence from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2025, 

demographic projections and existing empirical literature, it examines labour-force participation, 

female economic participation, employment quality, and differences in demographic transition across 

Indian states. The evidence suggests that India possesses a genuine demographic opportunity, but its 

conversion into sustained economic gains is not automatic. Low female labour-force participation, the 

need for more productive employment, differences across states, and the emerging challenge of 

population ageing are central to determining the extent of the dividend.